Anthropic Faces Potential Junk Rating as IPO Nears, Undermining $800bn Infrastructure Plan

Anthropic's path to a record-breaking stock market listing has hit a significant financing snag. Blackstone, acting as anchor investor in the AI lab's $63 billion chip financing deal, has told investors that major credit rating agencies are expected to assign the company a "high" junk rating — double-B range or above — rather than the investment-grade rating Blackstone had previously guided for, according to the Financial Times [1].

The reversal matters because Anthropic's prospectus, filed Monday for a potential November listing, outlines plans to spend more than $800 billion on computing infrastructure through 2045 [1]. An investment-grade rating would allow the company to borrow at lower rates to fund that build-out. A high-yield rating narrows the pool of available capital, since many insurance and pension funds face restrictions on junk-rated debt.

The financing structure already leans on suppliers' credit

The deal, known as Project North Star, finances Anthropic's lease of 1.5 gigawatts of Google semiconductors. More than $42 billion of senior loans carry a guarantee from Broadcom, which co-develops the chips and holds an investment-grade rating [1]. "Broadcom's high A-tier credit rating was an important factor in allowing Anthropic to secure the financing," the FT reported. The remaining $18 billion in junior debt — which takes losses first in a default — is backed only by Anthropic's lease payments.

Blackstone's funds invested $9 billion in that junior tranche at a yield above 10 percent [1]. Two smaller agencies have rated the junior debt: Kroll Bond Rating Agency assigned double-B plus with positive outlook, and Morningstar DBRS assigned double-B [1]. The three major agencies — Fitch, Moody's and S&P — have not yet issued official ratings for Anthropic.

Blackstone's guidance shift

Blackstone had told its investment partners in recent months that it expected an investment-grade rating for Anthropic before year-end [1]. The change came after receiving guidance from the major agencies, people familiar with the matter told the FT. Anthropic, Blackstone, KBRA, Morningstar DBRS and S&P declined to comment; Fitch and Moody's did not respond [1].

The FT's report coincided with a 3.5 percent drop in the Nasdaq 100 on Friday, though the index was already lower after weak earnings from Amazon and Intel [1]. "It's all about access to credit... if [Anthropic] isn't investment grade, the cost of credit goes higher, that's not good for anyone," a US tech-focused portfolio manager told the FT [1].

What the prospectus reveals

Anthropic's filing shows cash and equivalents exceeding $112 billion, with investors anticipating roughly $100 billion more from the IPO [1]. The Guardian, reviewing the 92-page risk factor document, noted the company acknowledges both the societal dangers of AI and business risks that could affect its prospects [2].

What remains unknown

The major agencies' final ratings are not yet public. Bankers for both Anthropic and rival OpenAI have lobbied for investment-grade ratings post-IPO [1]. Whether Anthropic can achieve that designation — and at what cost of capital — will shape the viability of its $800 billion infrastructure roadmap. The company's ability to service its debt without continued supplier guarantees remains an open question.